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A failure of common sense.

Settle down class!
Meadow, what is the odds of rolling a six on a die?
Right, what are the odds of rolling double six?
1/6 times 1/6 so 1/36 sir.
Now I have rolled a six with this die, what are the odds of rolling a six again.
Meadow - you are a miserable worm - Tompkins, what is the answer?
1/6 again, sir, they are two unconnected events. Actually sir it might be a bit less as the die might have a propensity to roll sixes!

To accuse a mother of murdering or deliberately harming her children is about the most heinous accusation you can make. Over the last few days we have discovered that not just one or two women but hundreds of women have been accused, found guilty, and jailed or had their children taken away from them for such crimes and the miserable worm Prof Meadow has been using very strange arguments as a professional witness in such cases.

Meadow, what is the odds of Sudden Infant Death occurring?
Now one child has died of SID what are the chances of a second child in the family dying of SID.
1/8500 times 1/8500 so 1/73 million sir
Meadow - you are a miserable worm. Can a real expert give us the answer?
1/8500 again, sir, they are two unconnected events. Actually sir it might be quite bit less as SID is thought to be influenced by environmental and genetic factors and so after one death the same factors apply to other children and makes them at high risk. In fact the figures from the Care of Next Infant charity (CONI) show after one cot death the risk of a second actually increases to one in 200.

But Meadow still is fixated on mothers commonly hurting and killing their children. His inability to understand basic statistics is enough for me to distrust him completely. My gut instinct tells me he is wrong in many other particulars. And his ignorance has had devastating effects.

Read this and get very upset!

And a final quote from another case: "We had not been interviewed by him. We did not even know who he was"
Mother whose daughter was taken into care after evidence by Sir Roy Meadow


What of the parents, whose children have been taken from them on this bogus scientific evidence?
Some have been adopted out against their natural parents wishes and, despite Meadows' total discreditation, will likely not be returned.
Anger doesn't quite cover it.


Something that no-one seems to be mentioning in the press is the "die might have a propensity to roll sixes" factor. Now if SID has a genetic component, which seems very likely, then the odds could be significantly different to 1 in 8,500 as you state.

Given that the medical profession seems to know so little about SID, this is yet another factor that ought to have been considered.

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