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Climate Report Fraud? Repost from 1st Nov 2006

I was kindly sent this very interesting article: Informath; Remarks on D.J. Keenan [Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2007] UPDATE - More on this with extra info on Climate Audit and Isabelle Chuine is still hard at work as a Climate Scientist...

Following are some remarks about my report "Grape harvest dates are poor indicators of summer warmth", as well as about scientific publication generally.




On 18 November 2004, Isabelle Chuine and co-workers published a research paper on global warming. The paper appeared in Nature, the world's most highly-regarded scientific journal. (UPDATE - Online here http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~ypsce/papers/chuine432289.pdf) And it gathered some publicity. Chuine et al. claimed to have developed a method for estimating the summer temperature in Burgundy, France, in any given year back to 1370 (based on the harvest dates of grapes). Using their method, the authors asserted that the summer of 2003 was the warmest summer since 1370, in Burgundy.

I had been following global warming studies only as a disinterested outside spectator (and only occasionally). Someone sent me the paper of Chuine et al., though, and wondered what I thought of it from a mathematical perspective. So I had a look.

To study the paper properly, I needed to have the authors' data. (UPDATE - ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/historical/france/burgundy2004.txt ) So I e-mailed Dr. Chuine, asking for this. The authors, though, were very reluctant to let me have the data. It me took eight months, tens of e-mails exchanged with the authors, and two formal complaints to Nature, before I got the data. (Some data was purchased from Météo France.) It is obviously inappropriate that such a large effort was necessary.

Looking at the data made it manifest that there are serious problems with the work of Chuine et al. In particular, the authors' estimate for the summer temperature of 2003 was higher than the actual temperature by 2.4 °C (about 4.3 °F). This is the primary reason that 2003 seemed, according to the authors, to be extremely warm.

There is also another reason. The three warmest years on record, prior to 2003, were 1945, 1947, and 1952. (The instrumental record goes back to 1922, or even 1883 if we accept some inaccuracies.) The estimate of Chuine et al. for the summer temperature in each of those years was much lower than the actual temperature.

That is, the authors had developed a method that gave a falsely-high estimate of temperature in 2003 and falsely-low estimates of temperatures in other very warm years. They then used those false estimates to proclaim that 2003 was tremendously warmer than other years.

The above is easy enough to understand. It does not even require any specialist scientific training. So how could the peer reviewers of the paper not have seen it? (Peer reviewers are the scientists who check a paper prior to its publication.) I asked Dr. Chuine what data was sent to Nature, when the paper was submitted to the journal. Dr. Chuine replied, "We never sent data to Nature".

I have since published a short note that details the above problem (reference below). There are several other problems with the paper of Chuine et al. as well. I have written a brief survey of those (for people with an undergraduate-level background in science). As described in that survey, problems would be obvious to anyone with an appropriate scientific background, even without the data. In other words, the peer reviewers could not have had appropriate background.

What is important here is not the truth or falsity of the claim of Chuine et al. about Burgundy temperatures. Rather, what is important is that a paper on what is arguably the world's most important scientific topic (global warming) was published in the world's most prestigious scientific journal with essentially no checking of the work prior to publication.

Moreover—and crucially—this lack of checking is not the result of some fluke failures in the publication process. Rather, it is common for researchers to submit papers without supporting data, and it is frequent that peer reviewers do not have the requisite mathematical or statistical skills needed to check the work (medical sciences excepted). In other words, the publication of the work of Chuine et al. was due to systemic problems in the scientific publication process.

The systemic nature of the problems indicates that there might be many other scientific papers that, like the paper of Chuine et al., were inappropriately published. Indeed, that is true and I could list numerous examples. The only thing really unusual about the paper of Chuine et al. is that the main problem with it is understandable for people without specialist scientific training. Actually, that is why I decided to publish about it. In many cases of incorrect research the authors will try to hide behind an obfuscating smokescreen of complexity and sophistry. That is not very feasible for Chuine et al. (though the authors did try).

Finally, it is worth noting that Chuine et al. had the data; so they must have known that their conclusions were unfounded. In other words, there is prima facie evidence of scientific fraud. What will happen to the researchers as a result of this? Probably nothing. That is another systemic problem with the scientific publication process.


See also   Peer review and the IPCC.



Chuine I., Yiou P., Viovy N., Seguin B., Daux V., Le Roy Ladurie E. (2004), “Grape ripening as a past climate indicator”, Nature, 432: 289–290. doi: 10.1038/432289a.

Keenan D.J. (2007), “Grape harvest dates are poor indicators of summer warmth”, Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Comments

Ah, but our author seems not to have the rules of the International Convention on Scientific Research, Appendix 39B "Rules Pertaining To Climate Change Science" to whit: "If the researcher's work, however poorly executed, proves the ruling orthodoxy, that researcher shall not be guilty of crimes against science".

Interestingly, the next paragraph states: "Should a researcher's work cast doubt upon orthodox thought, his work shall be deemed false regardless of the veracity of the data or the rigour of the research methodology".

I believe the Copenhagen Treaty Summit should be cancelled! How in God's name can this be considered a legal agreement when a Huge Amount of the basis for the Climate Change Data has been found to be Fraudulently Sabotaged and absolutely Inaccurate? This is signing an agreement Contract that has no Legal Foundation of Realistic conditions or elements due to inaccurate and Manipulated Data as described and therefore, anything stated on this Copenhagen Treaty Document should be considered Null and Void! Why create a Pandora's Box, subject to Lawsuits and Misgivings due to total inaccuracy of Scientific measurements? Which now is proving to be the case! This Treaty has no Legal ground to stand on and is and will be a False Document from day one!

Any lawyers want to help out by filing this Copenhagen Treaty be classified as an illegal Treaty!

There are four reasons the UN and IMF, Global Elitist Members Re: Ban Kai Moon ( Who has openly expressed his stong desire for Global Governance ), PM Gordon Brown, Bilderberg Member Henry Kissinger, Senior Bilderberg Member David Rockefeller as well as an unprecedented number of Dictators that run various countries who are members of the United Nations this Copenhagen Treaty that was designed to acquire four goals, the least of them being climate improvment or protection as Lord Moncton has stated!
(1.) To de-industrialize Sovereign Countries ( No Jobs keep you dependant on State ) ( 2.) Take your money and assets - Hence, Fraudulent Carbon Emmissions and Carbon Gases for Carbon Credits and Carbon Taxes! (3.) Take away your property (4.) Take away your Sovereignty and Freedom!

Check out what Government is doing behind your back at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU

http://www.gopetition.com/online/32485.html ( For Canadians who do not wish to lose their Sovereignty should PM Stephen Harper sign the Copenhagen Treaty this petition will request him not to sign the Treaty also phone your MPs and email PM Harper! )

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