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Global Warming and the floods beg the question

A catastrophe with mankind's footprints stamped on it - Times Online
Global warming is generating heavier rainfall over Britain of the sort that has triggered this week’s floods, scientists have confirmed for the first time.

While it has long been suspected that climate change is contributing to increased precipitation over midlatitude countries such as Britain, research has now conclusively linked greenhouse gases to heavier downpours.

Conclusive, debate is over... but , but...

The findings, from an international team including several British scientists, do not prove that this week’s flooding is the direct result of global warming: it is linked to weather patterns that have been known before.

A bit of a cop out there, I thought you just said it was "conclusively linked "...

...the scientists compared recorded changes in rain and snowfall over land with changes that are predicted by climate models that account for global warming caused by greenhouse gases.

Eh? So the evidence is that models based on real world events mirror real world events, and then you slip a causative hypothesis in there. That kind of is Begging the question

... a logical fallacy, petitio principii, in which the conclusion of an argument is implicitly or explicitly assumed in one of the premises . Stephen Barker explains the fallacy in The Elements of Logic: "If the premises are related to the conclusion in such an intimate way that the speaker and listeners could not have less reason to doubt the premise than they have to doubt the conclusion, then the argument is worthless as a proof, even though the link between premises and conclusion may have the most case-iron rigor".In other words, the argument fails to prove anything because it takes for granted what it is supposed to prove.


This is a very odd paper. It's widely agreed that climate models don't work at regional level. So making a correlation between a skill-less forecast and actual precipitation seems, er, a bit dubious.

One of the talking heads on the news last night said the the recent weather was within the normal range for the UK, but... blah blah could be global warming . And he was the sceptical one.

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