Met Office loses 2,958,859:1 bet
Climate Skeptichas a raft of interesting articles up overnight - amongst them are these:
..now that the year is over, I can update one of those forecasts, specifically the forecasts from the UK government Met office that said:
* Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 ｰC above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 ｰC;
* There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was 0.52 ｰC above the long-term 1961-1990 average).
Playing around with the numbers, and assuming a normal distribution of possible outcomes, this implies that their forecast mean is .54C and their expected std deviation is .0785C....
Using the satellite data...and scaling the data to a .52C anomaly in 1998 gets a reading for 2007 of 0.15C. For those who are not used to the magnitude of anomalies, 0.15C is WAY OFF from the forecasted 0.54C. In fact, using the mean and std. deviation of the forecast we derived above, the UK Met office basically was saying that it was 99.99997% certain that the temperature would not go so low. Another way of saying this is that the Met office forecast implied 2,958,859:1 odds against the temperature being this low in 2007.
What are the odds that the Met office needs to rethink its certainty level?
"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed and hence clamorous to be led to safety by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it."
H L Mencken