Dave and the curse of premature electioneering
Iain Dale's Diary: Telegraph Column: Drive a Stake Through Brown's Political Heart?When a politician is on the floor, bleeding heavily, it's hugely tempting for his political opponents to kick him to death. The spectacle of a political murder always cheers the party faithful and provides good copy for people like me - but it's not always a wise strategy...
There are two schools of thought as to how the Conservatives should attack Labour over the next few months. Some believe a softly, softly approach is best, in which the strategy would be to let the Government swing on a gibbet of its own making. The counter view is that it's time for a bit of rumbustious opposition.
David Cameron's strikingly aggressive performance at Prime Minister's Questions this week indicates that the latter approach is winning the argument. But there are dangers. Intemperate attacks on Gordon Brown send subliminal signals to people about nasty Tory leopards not having changed their spots. Also, they might hasten the day of the Prime Minister's departure, but for the Tories that would be to lose their biggest electoral asset. Many Tory MPs have already signed up to the "Save Gordon Brown" campaign.
The truth is, neither of these strategies are mutually exclusive. It's about getting the balance right.
There is a huge danger that the Tories will peak too soon, Dave's a young man, he isn't used to being close to pulling it off, the temptation is great but he must pull back from the vinegar strokes, try thinking hard of Margaret Beckett, that always works for me.
As the text books say:
If the premature electioneering occurs so early that it happens before commencement of the hustings and the man is attempting election as Prime Minister, then election as Prime Minister can be impossible to achieve. Perhaps the most affected organ system is the psyche of the party. Both parties are likely to be dissatisfied emotionally and physically by this problem.
Premature electioneering has historically been considered a psychological disorder. One theory is that males are conditioned by societal pressures to reach electoral success in a short time because of fear of discovery when canvassing as teenagers or during early conference experiences "in the back seat of the hall" or with a manifesto. This pattern of rapid attainment of political release is difficult to change in elected or long-term roles. The fact that electorate arousal requires more time than politician arousal is being increasingly recognized, and this may result in increased recognition and definition of premature electioneering as a problem.
Some have questioned whether premature electioneering is purely psychological. A number of investigators have found differences in nerve conduction/latency times and hormonal differences in politicians who conduct premature electioneering compared with individuals who do not. The theory is that some politicians have hyperexcitability or oversensitivity, thus preventing down-regulation of their sympathetic pathways and delay of electioneering.
One might find some logical sense, from an evolutionary point of view, that politicians who can provide a renta-quote rapidly would be more likely to succeed in getting votes than politicians who require prolonged stimulation to reach electoral success....
