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Arctic Ice - what's the true story?

Arctic ice refuses to melt as ordered | The Register

Just a few weeks ago, predictions of Arctic ice collapse were buzzing all over the internet. ...The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado released an alarming graph on August 11, showing that Arctic ice was rapidly disappearing, back towards last year's record minimum. Their data shows Arctic sea ice extent only 10 per cent greater than this date in 2007, and the second lowest on record.

The problem is that this graph does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.) So how did NSIDC calculate a 10 per cent increase over 2007? Their graph appears to disagree with the maps by a factor of three (10 per cent vs. 30 per cent) - hardly a trivial discrepancy.

Comments

And that's why you don't get your science from a scientifically illiterate journalist who works for a publication that has an agenda to deny the scientific reality of anthropogenic climate change.

Ironic that your link to the Register article nows shows the Editors note cleaning up the mess that Goddard made, and Goddard's full retraction. His credibility is now zero on this topic and probably on all others.

Poor deniers, they keep grasping at the thinest straws, spinning them into a long fabric of speculation, but the arctic keeps ignoring them, stubbornly warming and melting despite all the sophistry deniers marshal to try and convince the weather in the arctic to cool off instead of heating up.

The claim that arctic warming and melting doesn't meet predictions is exactly backwards. Warming and melting in the arctic are decades ahead of all the predictions of the models. There is a lot about the effect of green house gases that we are unable to predict yet. All of the models have proven to be too conservative.

The CCGS Amundsen did a historic, first ever continuous patrol of the Beaufort sea all through the winter of 2007 and spring of 2008. Coast Guard officers report that every year arctic navigation gets easier than the last.

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