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Presidential Betting

Guy Fawkes' blog of parliamentary plots, rumours and conspiracy: McCain - Is He Really Out of the Race?

Betfair is offering 5/1 on a McCain victory. That seems a bit steep for a two horse race. Sure he is behind, sure Palin is appalling the East Coast liberal media and the BBC, but 5/1?
Tempting odds for a value bet....

I don't think McCain is good enough but the odds were 5.8/1 this morning so a small tickle seemed in order, and a fiver on Sarah Palin at 480/1, why not, it might happen.


Actually you've got fairly good odds, when looked at from a historical viewpoint.
The public polling companies have called for the Democrats before, for example Bush vs. Kerry, Gore, and have gotten it wrong.
Even some of the Public polsters are saying it is to early to tell. Zogby comes to mind and he is a Democrat.
Part of the problem is how they weight the polls which is more difficult this year in that a lot of Republicans registered as Democrats in the open primary states.
Also they've been having to figure out how to weigh for cellphone only users. My rule of thumb is that unless a Democrat has over a 5% edge in a weighed majority of the public polls, he has no better than 50/50 real odds.

I only got 5/2 when I put a tenner on him a couple of weeks back.

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