Who will tell the Emperor he has no clothes
There's something wrong in our politics, something big and bang-in-the-middle: a howling question that is not about the global economy at all. It's about domestic leadership. It's about Mr Brown. He isn't any good. He's failing. He's embarrassing. He's dreadful. His colleagues know this. Yet they are gripped with a terrible fatalism, sliding towards election defeat as though catastrophe were unavoidable.
Defeat isn't, but catastrophe is. New Labour has modest achievement to its credit; and as to its two great blunders - Iraq and the credit bubble - the Tories have been in there too: up to their necks. It is still possible to pull things back quite some distance. But not with Mr Brown.
Don't rule out an October revolution. Don't rule out Mr Brown himself staring a 2010 defeat in the face, and deciding to run away. He's avoided two elections already - for the leadership, and then for an early general. He can duck a third.
My guess is the deal is that he will be allowed to hang on to his dream right up to the election; Labour is going to lose who ever is leading so why sacrifice yourself by being a losing leader. Take a lesson from the Tories. Shoot the loser after the inevitable and start the new brand then with an unsullied Alan or Dave or whoever.