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Alcohol Stats - the bitchslap

Transposed statistics -Times Online
Sir, Professor Ian Gilmore (letter, April 27) tells us that all but one liver-ward patients with alcohol-related liver problems were daily or very frequent drinkers, and deduces that “Middle England” drinkers are ending up on liver wards by regularly consuming what some might consider to be moderate levels of alcohol. Unfortunately, the deduction is misleading.

The premise shows that if one is a liver-ward patient then the probability of being a daily or frequent drinker is very high. But it says little directly about the probability of being on a liver ward, if one is a daily or frequent drinker — which is surely what one is interested in. This mistake has arisen sufficiently often for it to be given a name: the error of the transposed conditional.

Professor David J. Hand

President, Royal Statistical Society

Comments

Touche!

Phew, that's a relief. It's that error of the transposed conditional again.
If I ever get the chance, I'm going to buy Prof. Hand a drink.

I'm amazed that there is even one person with "alcohol related liver problems" that doesn't drink regilarly.

All this 'research'(etc) should be peer reviewed by a mathematician before it is published.

Rubbish like that frightens the horses and poisons the well!

*sigh*

Excessive alcohol intake can cause severe liver damage.

Excessive oxygen intake causes death (ask a doctor how long you could survive an oxygen-only atmosphere) so obviously oxygen delivery systems must be removed from ambulances and operating theaters.

what kind of drinks do they serve in a 'liver ward'?
They wouldn't make you go cold turkey would they?

And it keeps on going and going and going !

There are currently 5 common severe, permenant health afflictions, solely caused from moderate drinking.
-Grand Mal Seizures
-Rapidly Progressive Blindness
-Rapidly Progressive Deafness
-Rapidly Corroded Livers
And heart attacks !
None with any forewarning signs, nor any cures at this time !

Around 95% of individuals, world wide with any of these afflictions, have never spoken out about it to anyone, some not even their families are aware. Only that the individual has stopped all alcohol consumption completely !
Many organizations have been attempting to convince our Governments for mandatory health warning labels on all liquor containers, only to be basically ignored !

If we don't warn our youth.....tell me, who will take over all our professions, when us old sod's are in Nursing Homes ?
Just think about that for a minute...............or perhaps a heck of a lot longer !

May God have mercy on us all !

Sheila,

What are you talking about?

"There are currently 5 common severe, permenant health afflictions, solely caused from moderate drinking." Complete and utter bunkum (one example below):

http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/grand-mal-seizure/DS00222/DSECTION=causes

or would you like to point to the research that supports your outlandish claims?

"Around 95% of individuals, world wide with any of these afflictions, have never spoken out about it to anyone, some not even their families are aware.' So how do you know about them?

"If we don't warn our youth.....tell me, who will take over all our professions, when us old sod's are in Nursing Homes ?" The overwhelming majority who survive to adulthood just like we all did.

I know you've had personal tragedies associated with alcohol, but that does not make you an expert, nor does it justify you peddling junk to try and scare people into making lifestyle changes.

I enjoy consuming alcohol and I shall continue to do so, I'm off now to share a bottle of red with the wife.

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