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Sea Level Rise Highest Ever Estimate

World's leading scientists warn climate change is as great a threat as nuclear warfare
Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which organised the summit, said the consequences of not acting were comparable to a nuclear fall out.
"It is comparable in magnitude [to nuclear warfare]. With business as usual we will have another five or six degrees Celsius [9 to 10.8F] – that could not sustain civilisation as we know it, which is quite comparable to a nuclear shoot-out. It would mean 80 metres rise in sea level

80 Metres - Wow - In 2007, the International Panel on Climate Change only estimated that sea levels would rise 0.18 to 0.6 meters (0.59 to 2.0 feet) over the next 100 years. Al Gore weighed in with twenty feet over an unspecified time. But 80 metres, where did he get that from?

From assuming every bit of ice on the planet will melt!

sea%20level%20rise.jpg
Estimated potential maximum sea-level rise from the total melting of present-day glaciers.
[Modified from Williams and Hall (1993)]

Of course with the average temperature of Antarctica being -49 C some despicable deniers refuse to see how warming by 6 degrees C will melt all the ice...

Comments

I'm curious. Are people aware that floating ice, if melted, will not appreciably increase water levels due to the fact it is already displacing water due? As far as I am aware, this accounts for vast tracts of the West Antarctic sheet...

Erm, there seems to be a bit of a discrepancy in Herr Schellenhuber's numbers: Apparently melting all the ice in Greenland will give a sea level rise of 6.55m. That means each metre in sea level increase will need 400,000 cubic km of ice to be melted. Yet when the Antarctic penninsular goes we'll need 493,696 cubic km to generate a sea level rise of 1m. I know ice can vary in density according to temperature etc, but by 20%

They are getting increasingly desperate and shrill as people start to see through their nonsense. This is so far OTT as to be almost funny - except that policy-makers listen to this stuff seriously.

It can only be a matter of time (and perhaps one more cold winter) before their heads explode and the whole thing is over.

Then a lot of people will start to wonder how we were all (well many of us anyway) so extraordinarily gullible.

But in the meantime, because of the power of the Leviathan State, an awful lot of damage is being done to the developed world.

Boy, John Brignell really had this AGW crap nailed when he compared it to religion didn't he. Herr Schellnhuber is deep into the prophecy and irrationality part of John's comparison.

Although it could actually be worse than even Herr Schellnuber predicts! The problem is that the Antarctic ice sheet is, in fact, growing. Both vertically and horizontally. So every year that goes by the volume of ice at the south pole gets larger. Which means that the potential sea-level rise when it does all melt is that much greater. If the ice-sheet grew by, say, an additional 5,000,000 cubic km in the next 100 years and then it all suddenly melted that would make an additional 13m rise - 93m.

Obviously the longer we wait the worse it's going to be. I propose that we start an immediate crash program to melt the ice-caps now before it's too late.

The worst bit will be when leather-clad pirates on jet-skis attack your floating platform to kidnap a girl with a map to the last remaining bit of dry land tattooed on her back. I hate when that happens. I just hope there's a mysterious gilled stranger with a high-tech catamaran around to save the day.

Don't forget the BBC's part in all these scares. A classic is the programme broadcast on Radio 4 this last week on 'Costing the Earth'. Apart from Indian Ocean islands being evacuated due to rising sea levels (or perhaps islands sinking) we have the threat to the Orknies due to rising sealevels.

Being more interested in stories about Poiseidon than the current state of affairs but I guess the question I would ask is whether the sea level has actually risen anywhere in the world rather than in computer simulations?

Pat,

No, it hasn't. See here for the smackdown:

Rise of sea levels is 'the greatest lie ever told'

Money quote: "The reason why Dr Mörner, formerly a Stockholm professor, is so certain that these claims about sea level rise are 100 per cent wrong is that they are all based on computer model predictions, whereas his findings are based on 'going into the field to observe what is actually happening in the real world'."

In part my question was rhetorical but I thought the GW crowd had at least an observable event to draw some rather hyperbolic estimations from. In some ways this reminds me of some of my high school students who insist that General Santa Anna must have been bribed by Sam Houston because...well, you can add any number of reasons why Spanish should be spoken in Texas de jure rather than de facto. BTW, I really miss your blog.

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