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In The Year 2080, So Very Far Away

Here is the weather ... for July 2080 - Times Online

Farmers in Devon and Cornwall could be challenging vintners in France by 2080 as climate change transforms the southwest into a balmy wine-growing region.
Forecasters predict that temperatures could rise by 3C to 4C, making the West Country ideal for growing crops such as grapes, sweetcorn and sunflowers.
Meanwhile, commuters in London will be left sweltering as peak temperatures spiral as high as 41C.

Some may question how the Met Office can make predictions a lifetime into the future, when it struggles to produce forecasts for the next few months. However, climate change impacts are predicted to be so strong that, over decades, they are easier to predict than short-term changes.

"Easier to predict", of course, it only takes a week to prove a short term forecast wrong, but 2080, gosh, how can you doubt they might be right.

Comments

Because weather is a random event and because it's easier to predict a series of random events than an individual random event. For example, if you tossed a coin and I told you it would come up heads then I would be wrong 50% of the time. If however you tossed a coin 1,000 times and I said you would get between 490 and 510 heads I would be much more likely to be right. What the Met Office are predicting is not the exact weather on a specific day of July 2080, but what an average month would be like and the 41C figure from what a heatwave month would be like.

Now, I don't have any expertise in climate change so I've got no view on the validity or otherwise of the calculations. But the Met Office does have people who know what they are doing and based on the currently known facts they say that, then I'm inclined to believe them.

Met Office forecasts
Spring 2007 Summer Warmer than usual - Actual weather cool & wet
Spring 2008 Ditto Ditto
Autumn 2008 Winter 2008/2009 Milder than usual Actual winter colder than usual
Verdict don't give up the day job.

"...it struggles to produce forecasts for the next few months..."

Months?

MONTHS?

They can't even get next weekend right yet.

Why do we pay them any attention at all? (Oh yes, it's so that we have yet another excuse to boss people about and help ourselves to their money, silly of me to forget).

The good citizens of Sydney and Melbourne seem to thrive well enough 'struggling ' to work in 41 deg heat. The small, neat and terribly cool looking folk in Singapore consider 41 deg to be 'warm'. Bring it on.

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