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Turned out nice again

It’s raining bonuses at the Met Office

The government-owned body has already awarded £1.1m. More than 1,700 staff are getting a “forecast accuracy” bonus of about £650 each — after a series of bungled predictions.

I wonder how much they would have got if their forecasts had turned out right?

Met Office: Comparing forecast accuracy
...we have verified our forecasts by comparing forecasts of mean sea-level pressure with subsequent model analyses of mean sea-level pressure. These comparisons are made over an area covering the North Atlantic, most of western Europe and north-eastern parts of North America....

So as long as your subsequent model analyses agrees with the forecast for air pressure all is well. Am I wrong in wondering how the forecasts agree with actual reality? Or even how they agree with actual weather we get, which is rather more important than how high the mercury is.

Comments

'Targets' are the only metric this woeful government and its cockroach army of bureaucrats has to measure things with. Sadly the likelihood that the Boy Dave and his gang of chinless wonders can even diagnose the problem, let alone prescribe a cure (reducing Civil Service headcount by 2 million and putting the fear of God into the survivors) is exceedingly unlikely.

This is what the bulk of those 1700 are engaged in:
Climate Change Centre - One-stop centre for climate science - Explore world-leading science
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/

I spend a fair time outdoors and in my experience the met office ,or the BBC ,as a rule,tell me nothing i cannot get from a barometer. No forecast is reliable beyond 48 hours and often not that,which argues that a]the computers they have are programmed wrong, b] they are unable to read the information correctly or c] the British Isles are uniquely situated and no computerised forecast will ever work due to far too many factors influencing the climate.
I strongly favour 3] and it's odds on that they know it too so all this money and kit and high salaries on TV and elswhere are a waste of money ,again. In short ,a con trick.

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