The Arctic Ice Is Still All Going To Melt Real Soon - Consensus
The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years' time, a top polar specialist has said.
"It's like man is taking the lid off the northern part of the planet," said Professor Peter Wadhams, from the University of Cambridge.
Professor Wadhams has been studying the Arctic ice since the 1960s.
He was speaking in central London at the launch of the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey.
Professor Wadhams said: "The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view - based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition - that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will be happening within 10 years.
"That means you'll be able to treat the Arctic as if it were essentially an open sea in the summer and have transport across the Arctic Ocean."
A new "consensus" view...Campaigners are taking this latest research to the Copenhagen climate conference in December in hope that the evidence will convince world leaders to take action in cutting carbon emissions.
I looked at the Catlin Website and only found their July report, is this an update since we now know that there was a "rebound" in ice area this summer. For the record here is their conclusion back in July.
Catlin Arctic Survey 2009 Ice Report – June 09
Some science partners of the Catlin Arctic Survey have suggested that the 2009 summer minimum ice extent may make a slight recovery on 2008. This is hinted at in the prediction of multi‐year ice extent ... And the seemingly thicker First Year Ice measured by the Catlin Arctic Survey team may also be connected to this.
If this is the case, it would be evidence against the tipping point theory and the more short term predictions of ZIC. It may be a rebound after a below average decline, but it should not be mistaken for the start of a long‐term recovery in Arctic Sea Ice.
The latest conclusions from the OUTLOOK group in 2008 suggest that the ice extent will decline in irreversible steps after each warmer summer, rather than following a tipping point, or exponential decline. If there does prove to be a summer minimum recovery in 2009, it should be considered in this context.