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+++ Concerns with Met Office Precipitation Data +++

UPDATE - Tim Legg of the Met Office has kindly provided an explanation - see below.

(This is a guest post from a scientific reader)

The UK Meteorological Office has a file summarising average UK precipitation available on its website at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewrain.txt

This file gives average precipitation, month by month from 1914 until 2008. The data is presumably calculated from spot measurements at a number of weather stations, which are combined using assumptions about the rainfall etc over the whole country rather than just at the weather stations. Such a combination and averaging seems reasonable.

In addition, the Met Office displays on its website the following plot: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/CR_data/Monthly/EWP_seasonal1.gif

This plot seems to be making some sort of climate change case. It raised some concerns in my mind, including: averaging over a 4-month winter, including March, and a 2-month summer, rather than the usual 3-month periods; normalisation with respect to the average for each 'season' over the period 1961-90, which introduces a zero re-basing and a scaling. Having looked at the input data, there is also clearly some heavy smoothing in time, which is not mentioned, described or justified.

Investigation seemed appropriate, on whether the effects shown in the Met Office plot were as obvious with 3-month seasons and with absolute values for precipitation.

The simpler presentation is shown here:

ewrain_w01_plot5.jpg Click for larger ewrain_w01_plot5.jpg

Which shows precipitation for winter (Dec-Feb) in red and for summer (Jun-Aug) in green. The changes obvious in the Met Office plot are not nearly so obvious in this plot of the less processed data, though there is some lowering of summer rainfall from around 1975 to around 2000.

More importantly, the winter and summer plots overlap almost exactly for the last 5 years: 2004 to 2008. It stretches credulity that such an effect is really present in the average UK rainfall.

Extraction of some of the data file ewrain.txt, with some extra values, shows the following, which confirms that the problem is not with calculation or display of my plots:

Year Winter Precip (mm) Summer Precip (mm) Absolute Difference (mm) Ave (mm) of Winter & Summer Difference as %age of Average
2004 283.1 275.9 7.2 279.5 2.58%
2005 187.1 182.4 4.7 184.75 2.54%
2006 160.0 158.8 1.2 159.4 0.75%
2007 341.3 342.2 0.9 341.75 0.26%
2008 288.6 289.6 1.0 289.1 0.35%
It is also the case that the winter and summer values are, within close rounding errors, the sum of the values for their appropriate months (taking account that winter includes precipitation for December of the preceding year). Thus, the cause of the problem is unlikely to be simply a cutting and pasting mistake, and also unlikely to be a single trivial mistake in a spreadsheet formula or similar computation. In any case, it is disappointing that the problem was not discovered prior to publication of the data, by simple checks such as the above .

This problem is of some concern, especially if this data is relied upon in using recent weather trends for meteorological forecasting and for significant policy on national water management and emergency planning for flooding. There are also implications for forecasting of climate change.

[ends]

Coincidence or cock-up?
More data from the Met Office is available here and is waiting to be crunched...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/science/monitoring/CR_data/Monthly/HadEWP_act.txt which is also Monthly England & Wales precipitation (mm) gives a different picture ...hmmmm

UPDATE - more in newer post

UPDATE - From the Met Office:

I have just spent a little time looking at the monthly and seasonal
rainfall data which you were talking about in your email yesterday.

I have looked at the monthly totals, and the seasonal totals for DJF and
JJA calculated from these. The monthly totals themselves are all quite
different, but my calculations of the seasons (as the sum of three
individual months for each) do agree with yours, and I have to agree
that the similarity between each winter and the following summer for the
last 4 years or so is uncanny. But I can see no way that, given the way
things are calculated and the checks I have just made, the seasonal
totals can be incorrect. So as far as I can see it is just a
coincidence.

I also have access to monthly rainfall totals for 2009 so far for
England & Wales, from which I can tell you that I calculated DJF (last
winter) to have had a total of 207.5 mm, and for JJA (this summer) the
total was 263.7 mm, so the apparent correlation has now broken down.

Regards,
Tim Legg National Climate Information Centre (NCIC)

Scripts below:

# File: ewrain_gplot01.txt
# Last modified: 2009/10/14
# Author: xxx
#
# GNUPLOT script to plot various data in Met Office file 'ewrain_w01.txt',
# which is an edited version of the file available at
# http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewrain.txt
# Edits just render comments onto '#' lines, repeat column label comments
# and put dummy value into column 14 of first plot line (for year 1914).
#
#
cd "~/Desktop/ewrain_091014a"
#
#
set title "UK Absolute Precipitation (Dec-Mar and Jul-Aug)"
set key left top
set xlabel "Year"
set ylabel "Millimetres Annual Precipitation"
plot [1900:2010][0:1200] \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:18 with lines title "Total", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:($14+$4) with lines title "Dec-Mar", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:($16-$7) with lines title "Jul-Aug", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:($18-$2-$3+$14-$13) with lines title "Total (from Dec)"
pause -1 "Plot 1: UK Absolute Precipitation (Dec-Mar and Jul-Aug)"
#
#
set title "UK Absolute Precipitation (Standard Winter and Summer)"
set key left top
set xlabel "Year"
set ylabel "Millimetres Annual Precipitation"
plot [1900:2010][0:+1200] \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(($18)) with lines title "Total", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(($14)) with lines title "Winter", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(($16)) with lines title "Summer", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:($18-$2-$3+$14-$13) with lines title "Total (from Dec)"
pause -1 "Plot 2: UK Absolute Precipitation (Standard Winter and Summer)"
#
#
set title "UK Precipitation Proportional Change (%) WRT 1961-90 (Dec-Mar and Jul-Aug)"
set key left top
set xlabel "Year"
set ylabel "Percentage Change from\nAverage Annual Precipitation 1961..1990"
plot [1900:2010][-100:+100] \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*($18-906.5)/906.5) with lines title "Total", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*(($14+$4)-323.7)/323.7) with lines title "Dec-Mar", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*(($16-$7)-139.0)/139.0) with lines title "Jul-Aug", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*(($18-$2-$3+$14-$13)-906.5)/906.5) with lines title "Total (from Dec)"
pause -1 "Plot 3: Precipitation Proportional Change (%) WRT 1961-90 (Dec-Mar and Jul-Aug)"
#
#
set title "UK Precipitation Proportional Change (%) WRT 1961-90 (Standard Winter and Summer)"
set key left top
set xlabel "Year"
set ylabel "Percentage Change from\nAverage Annual Precipitation 1961..1990"
plot [1900:2010][-100:+100] \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*($18-906.5)/906.5) with lines title "Total", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*($14-250.5)/250.5) with lines title "Winter", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*($16-202.8)/202.8) with lines title "Summer", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(100*(($18-$2-$3+$14-$13)-906.5)/906.5) with lines title "Total (from Dec)"
pause -1 "Plot 4: Precipitation Proportional Change (%) WRT 1961-90 (Standard Winter and Summer)"
#
#
set title "UK Absolute Precipitation (Standard Winter and Summer)"
set key left top
set xlabel "Year"
set ylabel "Millimetres Annual Precipitation"
plot [1900:2010][0:+500] \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(($14)) with lines title "Winter", \
'ewrain_w01.txt' using 1:(($16)) with lines title "Summer"
pause -1 "Plot 5: UK Absolute Precipitation (Standard Winter and Summer)"
#
#

# File: ewrain_w01.txt
# Last modified: 2009/10/14
# Author: XXX
#
# GNUPLOT data file, which is an edited version of the file available at
# http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/seriesstatistics/ewrain.txt
#
# Edits just render comments onto '#' lines, adds line of column numbers,
# repeat column label comments, and put dummy value into column 14 of
# first plot line (for year 1914).
#
#
#England & Wales Rainfall (mm)
#Areal Series, starting from 1914
#Allowances have been made for topographic, coastal and urban effects where relationships are found to exist.
#The 30 year averages have been derived from 1km grids, whereas the rest of the values have been derived from 5km grids.
#Seasons: Winter=Dec-Feb, Spring=Mar-May, Summer=June-Aug, Autumn=Sept-Nov. (Winter: Year refers to Jan/Feb).
#Data is provisional from May 2008 & Spring 2008.
#
#Col1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
#Year JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC WIN SPR SUM AUT ANN
1914 50.9 87.0 115.8 32.3 47.1 56.6 97.1 63.9 48.1 62.4 110.3 190.8 328.7 195.2 217.6 220.8 962.3
#1914 50.9 87.0 115.8 32.3 47.1 56.6 97.1 63.9 48.1 62.4 110.3 190.8 --- 195.2 217.6 220.8 962.3
1915 105.3 129.0 36.2 37.3 64.3 33.3 123.0 76.2 39.4 71.4 73.5 182.7 425.1 137.8 232.5 184.3 971.6
1916 58.6 129.4 97.9 47.9 70.7 63.7 51.3 89.2 54.8 142.1 110.1 90.4 370.7 216.5 204.2 307.0 1006.1
1917 58.2 30.9 67.0 55.0 61.7 65.7 64.3 172.8 54.8 130.7 61.7 43.1 179.5 183.7 302.8 247.2 865.9
1918 90.1 67.8 39.2 56.0 57.7 31.5 110.1 60.7 186.2 72.1 67.3 123.2 201.0 152.9 202.3 325.6 961.9
1919 117.7 71.4 122.1 62.6 26.6 37.0 58.3 79.1 53.7 65.4 71.2 143.9 312.3 211.3 174.4 190.3 909.0
1920 111.3 49.9 91.0 119.0 75.2 61.9 133.1 48.0 69.0 67.8 45.3 91.4 305.1 285.2 243.0 182.1 962.9
1921 110.5 8.7 64.5 32.6 47.8 10.3 31.0 98.2 38.5 51.7 65.2 80.4 210.6 144.9 139.5 155.4 639.4
1922 107.2 95.0 69.6 77.4 33.2 39.6 119.0 96.6 80.6 33.1 47.1 118.7 282.6 180.2 255.2 160.8 917.1
1923 62.4 153.5 48.3 67.9 67.3 20.5 76.7 95.0 82.9 137.2 92.5 96.8 334.6 183.5 192.2 312.6 1001.0
1924 91.3 24.3 36.2 73.0 122.0 63.1 110.4 96.3 111.9 126.9 73.0 123.3 212.4 231.2 269.8 311.8 1051.7
1925 79.2 124.0 31.2 71.0 100.5 4.0 69.3 86.7 95.1 106.0 70.3 94.8 326.5 202.7 160.0 271.4 932.1
1926 110.6 78.3 24.5 65.4 67.1 73.0 73.6 71.5 53.9 86.6 162.1 23.3 283.7 157.0 218.1 302.6 889.9
1927 90.8 76.8 86.8 56.8 35.8 98.7 96.2 135.0 142.3 76.0 100.5 77.2 190.9 179.4 329.9 318.8 1072.9
1928 160.7 81.3 76.7 39.0 37.1 98.4 56.9 93.1 32.7 142.2 121.4 84.9 319.2 152.8 248.4 296.3 1024.4
1929 46.4 28.4 10.7 30.8 57.7 46.5 67.1 73.9 27.6 125.2 196.7 184.8 159.7 99.2 187.5 349.5 895.8
1930 131.4 23.7 64.7 71.3 57.0 37.7 108.6 108.4 109.0 98.8 125.1 100.0 339.9 193.0 254.7 332.9 1035.7
1931 78.9 81.3 21.9 89.9 87.6 95.2 108.9 115.7 72.2 35.4 137.0 46.7 260.2 199.4 319.8 244.6 970.7
1932 93.1 8.4 59.7 83.0 122.2 33.9 101.0 47.1 92.5 154.6 61.6 51.4 148.2 264.9 182.0 308.7 908.5
1933 69.3 96.5 74.1 35.4 53.2 57.4 60.0 31.7 53.2 105.0 44.8 25.7 217.2 162.7 149.1 203.0 706.3
1934 81.5 11.6 71.5 72.1 44.3 43.6 42.3 81.1 69.5 84.9 56.9 177.8 118.8 187.9 167.0 211.3 837.1
1935 43.3 102.6 25.4 98.6 33.1 95.5 23.3 58.1 136.2 131.7 143.2 90.8 323.7 157.1 176.9 411.1 981.8
1936 122.1 71.8 60.1 50.4 30.2 94.9 135.4 33.2 90.8 62.7 102.3 95.4 284.7 140.7 263.5 255.8 949.3
1937 125.9 135.9 87.3 77.3 71.5 41.6 64.1 39.1 61.9 80.0 49.6 93.9 357.2 236.1 144.8 191.5 928.1
1938 110.7 34.0 18.9 6.9 70.8 60.0 86.6 84.6 58.6 131.5 122.8 108.9 238.6 96.6 231.2 312.9 894.3
1939 154.3 60.5 57.9 64.0 31.0 62.8 133.1 72.9 31.9 111.3 154.6 60.1 323.7 152.9 268.8 297.8 994.4
1940 70.3 74.0 76.4 59.1 40.7 21.2 109.2 16.8 52.2 107.1 184.0 74.0 204.4 176.2 147.2 343.3 885.0
1941 83.8 97.1 86.4 39.9 59.8 33.3 70.8 116.8 19.8 83.7 79.9 53.8 254.9 186.1 220.9 183.4 825.1
1942 102.8 29.7 63.8 41.7 99.7 18.5 74.8 87.3 68.3 95.7 40.0 104.7 186.3 205.2 180.6 204.0 827.0
1943 148.7 49.1 25.9 36.8 82.8 62.1 55.8 85.7 88.6 86.4 67.9 51.4 302.5 145.5 203.6 242.9 841.2
1944 85.2 41.0 12.0 56.1 39.3 63.6 71.3 75.4 106.0 116.2 153.3 73.5 177.6 107.4 210.3 375.5 892.9
1945 80.5 82.0 34.8 43.7 80.2 81.6 65.5 69.1 64.1 105.9 17.9 99.1 236.0 158.7 216.2 187.9 824.4
1946 90.4 87.6 37.3 44.7 71.1 84.3 75.1 136.1 126.7 37.4 158.3 97.4 277.1 153.1 295.5 322.4 1046.4
1947 80.4 50.1 163.5 79.6 57.7 64.9 69.6 12.9 50.6 19.4 81.7 78.4 227.9 300.8 147.4 151.7 808.8
1948 176.7 50.2 39.3 51.9 65.5 92.1 46.0 114.2 75.4 75.0 57.3 114.2 305.3 156.7 252.3 207.7 957.8
1949 44.2 42.5 41.8 68.2 64.8 19.1 53.5 54.3 47.2 152.9 111.3 88.7 200.9 174.8 126.9 311.4 788.5
1950 38.1 141.6 41.8 73.3 50.9 46.9 98.5 124.8 132.7 46.7 143.5 69.2 268.4 166.0 270.2 322.9 1008.0
1951 92.8 109.8 111.6 71.6 78.3 32.4 48.7 128.7 83.7 31.5 179.8 103.8 271.8 261.5 209.8 295.0 1072.7
1952 86.5 25.5 71.5 58.9 66.1 54.9 34.9 103.2 87.2 106.3 90.3 86.8 215.8 196.5 193.0 283.8 872.1
1953 32.4 51.7 30.2 73.4 58.8 63.3 97.4 84.8 84.5 70.2 74.2 35.0 170.9 162.4 245.5 228.9 755.9
1954 63.6 81.8 76.1 16.6 77.2 88.7 88.7 120.4 93.8 129.5 169.1 93.0 180.4 169.9 297.8 392.4 1098.5
1955 81.5 60.8 54.5 35.9 101.3 85.1 27.8 28.2 51.4 71.4 61.4 107.8 235.3 191.7 141.1 184.2 767.1
1956 117.6 24.7 32.7 39.2 24.4 68.7 101.7 152.9 90.4 56.3 33.5 105.0 250.1 96.3 323.3 180.2 847.1
1957 78.0 93.8 71.0 9.9 46.5 49.1 108.4 105.2 127.5 78.0 60.9 79.3 276.8 127.4 262.7 266.4 907.6
1958 89.7 119.7 43.7 29.3 81.7 107.2 96.8 97.0 123.5 83.9 55.1 100.3 288.7 154.7 301.0 262.5 1027.9
1959 101.0 11.2 68.3 80.2 28.3 45.8 66.4 34.4 8.4 89.1 123.3 166.0 212.5 176.8 146.6 220.8 822.4
1960 127.0 83.1 49.1 48.1 42.0 49.5 111.7 106.5 110.0 166.9 150.9 111.9 376.1 139.2 267.7 427.8 1156.7
1961 112.9 69.6 15.3 95.4 37.9 37.8 66.2 80.7 76.4 116.6 60.6 95.5 294.4 148.6 184.7 253.6 864.9
1962 110.0 37.8 42.5 69.5 65.2 19.6 56.4 110.1 100.2 37.2 68.3 71.3 243.3 177.1 186.1 205.7 788.2
1963 28.1 32.1 101.9 78.4 51.8 81.0 53.2 98.2 68.7 59.5 155.2 28.6 131.5 232.2 232.4 283.4 836.8
1964 27.1 30.9 87.5 63.2 58.2 72.1 52.6 52.2 34.9 61.9 59.6 105.3 86.7 208.9 176.9 156.4 705.5
1965 100.2 15.9 69.9 60.6 61.0 71.6 96.2 70.3 131.3 34.3 104.2 165.4 221.4 191.5 238.1 269.8 981.0
1966 55.5 121.5 37.7 100.7 69.9 81.6 73.9 99.5 51.5 121.1 80.9 113.2 342.4 208.3 254.9 253.5 1007.0
1967 62.5 91.4 54.6 44.0 133.7 38.9 63.3 74.8 100.5 172.7 71.7 76.7 267.1 232.4 176.9 344.9 984.8
1968 81.8 44.1 61.2 64.2 73.0 82.9 97.1 65.3 141.5 93.1 67.6 78.1 202.6 198.3 245.3 302.2 949.9
1969 96.1 66.8 70.1 56.3 110.2 56.1 63.2 71.6 41.3 19.5 130.2 87.1 241.1 236.6 190.9 191.0 868.7
1970 108.8 83.9 62.1 86.3 23.7 43.4 70.5 79.2 66.6 62.8 167.6 50.7 279.8 172.2 193.1 297.0 905.5
1971 107.1 36.3 65.4 49.9 46.5 96.2 42.7 108.2 25.2 73.8 91.2 39.1 194.1 161.7 247.1 190.1 781.5
1972 100.9 74.3 76.4 69.0 74.0 77.2 55.1 37.0 39.3 34.9 103.2 109.1 214.3 219.4 169.3 177.4 850.5
1973 45.7 43.0 25.1 65.5 78.2 56.1 85.9 65.8 77.9 53.0 53.9 69.6 197.9 168.8 207.8 184.8 719.7
1974 129.2 104.7 44.7 13.2 40.4 63.0 75.9 88.6 143.1 90.0 122.8 81.3 303.5 98.3 227.4 355.9 996.9
1975 123.2 30.2 75.0 67.6 42.4 19.9 65.4 51.0 102.0 35.5 73.2 50.0 234.7 184.9 136.3 210.7 735.2
1976 61.3 41.9 46.5 20.1 62.0 18.1 30.6 25.3 147.9 148.3 81.9 87.8 153.2 128.5 74.0 378.1 771.7
1977 96.4 134.6 73.5 51.6 48.8 82.4 24.8 93.5 42.5 69.7 105.1 92.5 318.7 174.0 200.6 217.3 915.3
1978 109.3 79.1 81.9 48.4 40.4 59.8 83.8 64.7 55.2 18.8 62.3 161.7 280.9 170.7 208.2 136.2 865.3
1979 81.1 59.1 122.9 64.2 113.6 36.1 32.8 90.8 42.5 75.1 91.0 159.6 301.9 300.7 159.8 208.5 968.8
1980 75.9 90.7 98.8 16.7 29.0 117.4 64.2 88.6 65.9 128.1 90.5 81.5 326.2 144.5 270.2 284.5 947.3
1981 58.8 53.6 156.2 56.6 87.8 47.0 52.4 41.4 140.9 124.6 70.9 90.1 193.9 300.6 140.8 336.5 980.3
1982 76.3 48.6 100.6 22.4 42.3 117.2 34.4 83.9 78.7 117.4 126.1 104.9 215.0 165.4 235.6 322.1 952.9
1983 103.7 38.8 65.6 101.6 110.3 35.6 34.7 32.9 99.5 84.3 49.6 111.2 247.4 277.5 103.2 233.5 867.9
1984 142.7 56.6 58.5 10.4 58.3 42.7 25.9 56.9 114.8 98.8 142.8 79.2 310.5 127.1 125.4 356.4 887.4
1985 71.3 28.4 65.5 68.9 64.6 93.8 71.2 115.9 44.8 47.7 76.1 126.5 178.9 199.0 280.9 168.6 874.6
1986 119.8 16.5 78.5 82.7 85.2 42.0 54.1 115.8 24.1 95.2 122.4 142.0 262.8 246.4 212.0 241.6 978.2
1987 29.7 58.6 89.0 63.1 45.3 104.3 72.1 66.4 64.6 165.0 79.3 64.3 230.3 197.4 242.7 308.9 901.6
1988 153.0 63.4 101.8 40.2 58.9 38.4 127.5 84.1 62.7 88.8 47.8 45.1 280.6 200.9 250.0 199.3 911.7
1989 46.0 87.5 90.7 81.9 20.1 54.9 37.2 57.0 40.6 96.8 60.1 132.9 178.7 192.7 149.1 197.5 805.7
1990 131.3 140.7 22.7 38.1 24.2 70.7 34.2 46.2 52.2 101.0 65.9 99.5 404.9 85.0 151.1 219.1 826.7
1991 91.1 63.7 74.2 69.2 13.9 92.7 67.7 30.4 61.9 76.1 93.2 48.9 254.3 157.3 190.8 231.2 783.1
1992 47.8 46.3 83.5 72.3 48.0 38.2 81.6 127.7 90.9 83.1 136.8 82.3 143.1 203.7 247.5 310.7 938.5
1993 110.4 15.2 25.3 91.2 86.5 64.0 80.6 53.1 110.2 87.0 71.7 162.7 207.9 203.1 197.8 268.9 958.0
1994 119.8 79.7 93.4 72.1 59.8 35.5 45.1 69.8 102.5 94.7 83.7 137.9 362.2 225.4 150.5 280.9 994.2
1995 156.0 110.9 65.5 26.2 47.5 22.4 39.0 10.3 109.8 55.8 80.5 81.5 404.8 139.1 71.6 246.1 805.2
1996 62.1 81.6 42.1 49.3 56.0 29.1 40.6 78.7 33.7 88.3 124.5 51.7 225.2 147.4 148.4 246.4 737.6
1997 13.8 116.6 30.7 24.2 72.9 123.8 47.3 91.9 35.0 66.7 113.5 105.0 182.1 127.8 263.0 215.1 841.2
1998 116.0 22.7 96.5 121.8 32.5 124.3 58.5 50.2 92.3 161.1 83.9 90.9 243.7 250.8 232.9 337.3 1050.6
1999 133.9 51.3 70.9 74.9 57.6 82.0 24.1 103.0 119.0 81.9 64.2 151.1 276.0 203.4 209.1 265.1 1013.9
2000 54.5 96.1 38.0 132.5 83.8 47.6 62.3 66.4 121.5 180.1 174.8 136.6 301.7 254.3 176.3 476.4 1194.3
2001 74.2 96.3 91.3 98.1 42.5 41.9 74.0 86.1 81.3 131.6 67.7 44.3 307.0 231.9 202.0 280.6 929.2
2002 95.1 140.7 49.3 53.7 93.7 57.4 83.3 67.3 34.8 133.3 154.1 128.5 280.1 196.8 207.9 322.2 1091.3
2003 86.1 38.8 38.9 45.4 74.6 67.2 75.6 17.6 36.7 57.7 100.1 100.3 253.4 158.9 160.4 194.5 739.1
2004 124.0 58.8 53.9 78.5 45.8 58.5 68.5 148.9 65.9 148.5 52.6 69.2 283.1 178.3 275.9 267.0 973.1
2005 67.6 50.3 52.0 74.5 47.6 56.6 66.3 59.5 68.4 121.9 90.0 68.7 187.1 174.1 182.4 280.3 823.3
2006 35.0 56.3 93.5 46.0 109.5 25.6 43.1 90.2 74.9 117.7 110.2 129.8 160.0 249.0 158.8 302.8 931.8
2007 110.5 100.9 62.7 12.6 110.1 149.0 136.0 57.2 50.6 47.3 73.1 99.7 341.3 185.3 342.2 171.0 1009.7
2008 145.2 43.6 99.3 68.0 67.1 63.1 107.1 119.3 104.8 111.8 87.8 63.9 288.6 234.4 289.6 304.4 1081.1
#
#MIN 13.8 8.4 10.7 6.9 13.9 4.0 23.3 10.3 8.4 18.8 17.9 23.3 86.7 85.0 71.6 136.2 639.4
#MAX 176.7 153.5 163.5 132.5 133.7 149.0 136.0 172.8 186.2 180.1 196.7 190.8 425.1 300.8 342.2 476.4 1194.3
#6190 90.3 64.6 73.2 60.1 63.4 63.7 62.3 76.7 78.3 86.5 91.8 95.6 250.5 196.8 202.8 256.5 906.5
#7100 94.5 67.5 73.8 60.8 59.3 66.1 57.5 72.2 80.3 93.2 93.6 101.8 263.8 193.9 195.8 267.1 920.7
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Comments

This statistical stuff is a bit above my head, but do I correctly gather that the Met Office tortured the data until it confessed?

Has your guest passed this on to Anthony Watts at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/ ?

Hmmm. Is monthly precipitation data available for individual stations? If so, it would be worth checking some individual stations.

Why is that, whenever a warmist organisation (which the Met Office certainly is) produces some information or a chart or table (or basically anything, really), it always turns out that they have massaged the data according to some complicated process which is never explained very well, and which involves various assumptions that are never justified or supported, and which - surprise! - then turns out to support their hypothesis?

Why not just give us the facts, and let those who can, draw the conclusions - if any - which are surely present in the data?

Surely not because they want us to come to a particular conclusion? Could it be?

I think a vote of thanks should be given to Tim Legg of the National Climate Information Centre for responding in the polite and informative way that he did.

We often, sometimes with good reason, regard all official providers of weather statistics as tarred iredeemably with the AGW philosophy and immune to comment. It is good to know that there is someone out there prepared to listen and respond politely...

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