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Would you now trust a bridge built by The Team?
What could go wrong with a bridge built by professionals backed by engineering calculations....
Blog Post Dated: December 1, 2009 6:55 AM | Permalink
After that of course "experts" never got it wrong did they? (Anyone remember something called the "Millenium Bug"?)
Ned Kelley |
December 1, 2009 8:39 AM
That is what amazes me about the whole thing. When, in the 60s I think, someone produced a paper proving that bumble bees can't fly everyone laughed. I suspect that today a massive program of psychotherapy would be launched to solve our popular delusion that they can.
I recently found that Dr. Jones published in about 1990 a paper using data from obscure Chinese weather stations and provided by a Dr. Wang proving that the Urban Heat Island effect was negligible. Now this effect can easily be checked in any city using a few thermometers, people to read them and paper and pencil for the results. Most of us could do the calculations in our heads, but would show them on paper. This should be feasible as an "O" level project. When the paper was found to be false Dr. Wang got it in the neck for providing false data- but nothing seems to have been done about Dr. Jones instituting a very poorly designed and massively overcomplicated experiment. And I can't help wondering why he did that- well, not much anyway.
December 1, 2009 8:45 AM
I believe that Steve McIntyre asked on more than one occassion whether there was any engineering type calculations on the expected rise in temperature for a doubling of CO2. To date only one person has attempted it and Steve stated that he couldn't accept the approach. To compare the team to engineers is a travesty. We have to design, test, evaluate and develop based on Physics and Mathematics. Our computer programs for FEA or circuit simulation via spice, VHDL etc., are tested daily against the real world. We do not design weave patterns for the emperors new clothes. On the other hand maybe I could think up a new analogy for farmers.......
Brian BAKER |
December 1, 2009 8:56 AM
I was about to leap to the defense of engineers but Brian has done that already, so I'll throw some petrol on instead.
About 45 secs into this video about the London Millenium Bridge, a Mr Dallard says "We'd done lots of work to try and understand its behavior, we felt that we understood it very well. And here it is doing something completely unexpected."
Apparently the problem, lateral harmonic instability, was understood but the findings were published in the wrong scientific journals.
Comparisons with the state of climate science are not entirely erroneous.
December 1, 2009 12:16 PM
This attempted analogy with engineering is way off the mark. Engineering is, as BB and Diogenes point out, the hardest applied science there is. It says a lot about Twenty first century climate science that Dr Jones has climbed to the top of the tree, despite his pathetic attempts twenty years ago to belittle the urban 'heat island' effect, (h-t to Pat for digging that one up!).
Then again, I suppose Jones would want to rubbish the 'urban heat island' stats.They suggest that man made modifications to our climate are essentially local in effect, and that man's impact on the global picture is minimal.
December 1, 2009 2:12 PM
That's peer-reviewed engingeering calculations to you.
Andrew Duffin |
December 1, 2009 3:46 PM
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