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Next Year to be the Hottest Ever

BBC News - Global average temperature may hit record level in 2010

The global average temperature could reach a record high in 2010, according to the UK's Met Office.
Forecasters predict that the annual figure for 2010 will be 14.58C (58.24F), 0.58C (1.04F) above the long-term average of 14.0C (58.2F).

Memo to self: Review Dec 2010.

Comments

So we're going to have another barbecue summer then?

Excellent! That'll cut down on my outrageous heating bills and give us ample opportunity to have barbecues, just to keep our "Carbon footprint" the right size (I mean, to compensate for the CO2 we won't be emitting via the central heating).

In what sense is 1961-1990 a 'long term' average?

Plus of course, if you pick the right arbitrary basis period (one that happens to include a comparatively cool period in the 20th Century) current temps, even if they are entirely natural, will look decidedly above average. Why doesn't the basis period move forward every year?

That's assuming the 'global average' is a credible notion, which it isn't as far as surface stations go.(Patchy, declining in numbers, fiddled figures and more besides. Just what are the margins for error in the measurements?)

That's also assuming a warmer climate bring worse weather, which appears not to be the case - the impression that it is is more down to manmade land mis-management putting more people in harm's way through building on floodplains, flood defences elsewhere exaggerating flood levels, not dredging etc.

The last decade has been relatively flat. Higher than an arbitrary average perhaps (and only perhaps) but flat nontheless. The rate of change is what humankind would struggle with not slightly warmer temperatures, and the rate of change appears very manageable.

Sorry Mark, if you read on, you will find that 2009, with another crap summer for us, was globally "the fifth warmest in the 160-year record". So next, year, even if others roast, we will get wet again.

Hey ho, Mother Country!

We out here in the Thuggish Petro-State Formerly Known As The Dominion Of CanadaTM are facing record-breaking temps in our vast western expanses.

Record-breaking LOW temperatures, that is.

Better buy some new jumpers in the New Year sales then...

I downloaded the figures for my local weather station last night and did my own graph!

It showed that the average peak temperature had gone up by 1 degree in 80 years - but I didn't take the minimum figures into account to create a proper average figure - I might do that tomorrow - however, that is just going to show a figure of less that 13 degrees - not something the BBC wants to hear!

Whenever we naughty sceptics point out little faux pas like the "barbeque summer" predictions to which we were subjected last winter we're reminded that "weather isn't climate". Now to an extent I have to agree with this, but this latest prediction strikes me as very much a case of the cardigans conflating the two.

This time, come June, if we're all sitting around in our winter woolies, watching the rain extinguish yet another charcoal fire, I'd say we'd have every right to pour scorn on the consensus.

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