Defra - Climate Change at Sea - We just don't know
Figure 6.2 Temperature changes relative to the corresponding average for 1901-1950 (°C) from decade to decade from 1906 to 2005 over the Earth’s continents, as well as the entire globe, global land area and the global ocean (lower graphs). The black line indicates observed temperature change, while the coloured bands show the combined range covered by 90% of recent model simulations. Red indicates simulations that include natural and human factors, while blue indicates simulations that include only natural factors. Dashed black lines indicate decades and continental regions for which there are substantially fewer observations.
Reproduced from IPCC AR4 WG1 Chp 9 FAQ 9.2 Figure 1, page 703
Nice to see an old friend make a reappearance in today's report from Defra about the state of the Oceans. I just can't get past the bottom left graph which shows that the historic global temperature in the 1940s is well above what the models say it should be. Either the record is wrong or the models are. And if the models can't get it right for the past what use are they?
As they say:
While many of the changes we observe are consistent with increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and a warming climate, for example rising sea temperature and increasing acidification, we still do not understand many of the causative links to climate change. In particular we struggle with the rate and magnitude of future change for factors such as sea-level rise, Atlantic circulation, sea-ice extent, acidification and stratification. In other cases, for example the extent to which the oceans will continue to take up CO2, or changes in storminess or salinity, we are not even sure which direction the change in marine climate will take.
Furthermore, there are often insufficient data to draw robust links between climate change and impacts on marine ecosystems, and in some cases we do not sufficiently understand the underlying effects of climate change on the physical environment.
That confession of ignorance can also be read as a cry for more research funding....