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We are still all going to die - latest.

Risk of flood from rising sea levels has been exaggerated, say climate scientists | The Times (£)

The risk of rising sea levels engulfing Britain’s coasts has been overstated but the evidence for other devastating impacts of climate change is growing, according to the first major review of the science of global warming since the “climategate” affair.
Apocalyptic claims about the slowing down of the Atlantic Ocean conveyor belt, popularly known as the Gulf Stream, have also been exaggerated, the review found.
But....The latest observations of thinning ice indicate that ships could sail routinely across the North Pole in summer months as early as the 2060s, according to the review by the Met Office, the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The review predicted that the intensity of tropical storms would increase but admitted that it is unclear whether such storms would become more frequent.
It suggested that bouts of extreme weather, such as intense rainfall, could become more frequent. But it added: “At present, we have poor skill in quantifying the local changes in extremes.”


So: 50+ years to a North Pole that is ice-free in the summer. Makes a change from the traditional disaster in "10 short years". Pushes it so far in the future that no one will remember or care. At least they are learning not to make the mistake of that great Noble Prize winner ...

There was a video where Al Gore talked about the Arctic icecap (in 2009 IIRC). That was the one where, overshadowed by a dinosaur in a Berlin museum, he predicted the entire Northern icecap would be free of ice in 5 (holds up 4 fingers and a thumb), count them, 5 years! It may come as a surprise but it is no longer available on Youtube.

He had also said to a Guardian reporter (although, again, the original appears to be difficult to find now):

... business leaders are realizing that action is required on climate change because they are “seeing the writing on every wall they look at. They’re seeing the complete disappearance of the polar ice caps right before their eyes in just a few years.”

Note: polar icecaps, plural. Last time I saw, there were only 2 poles with icecaps - North and South. Presumably he mis-spoke (as the saying goes). But why assume he did.


Al Gore recently made the first intelligent statement he's made in years, when he finally admitted that using corn ethanol fuel is bad for the environment. As I noted in my blog post today, though, I feel bad for the workers who will lose their jobs when the U.S. Congress yanks support for the ethanol industry. Gore was once a vocal advocate for ethanol, so maybe he should pay for the retraining of those who lose their jobs.

So, to paraphrase Commander Shore of "Stingray" fame, when it comes to weather, er, climate, "anything can happen in the next 30 years!"

That certainly narrow things down a bit.

“At present, we have poor skill in quantifying the local changes in extremes.”

Can't predict with any confidence what will happen in County A, nor in County B, but absolutely sure about what the "average" of the two will be.

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