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Jill Duggan - The Transcript

Don’t know the cost, don’t know if it works | Herald Sun Andrew Bolt Blog

Andrew Bolt

The two basic questions with any purchase. How much does it cost? Will it do the job?

Jill Duggan is from the European Commission’s Directorate General of Climate Action. She is the EC’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change. She was head of Britain’s International Emissions Trading. She is in Australia to tell us how good Europe’s emission trading system is and why we should do something similar.

No one, therefore, should better know the answers to the two most basic questions about this huge scheme. The cost? The effect?.

So on MTR yesterday, I asked them. Duggan’s utter inability to answer is a scandal - an indictment of global warming politics today.= (listen here):


AB: Can I just ask; your target is to cut Europe’s emissions by 20% by 2020?

JD: Yes.

AB: Can you tell me how much - to the nearest billions - is that going to cost Europe do you think?

JD: No, I can’t tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it’s cheaper to start earlier rather than later, so it’s cheaper to do it now rather than put off action.

AB: Right. You wouldn’t quarrel with Professor Richard Tol - who’s not a climate sceptic - but is professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin? He values it at about $250 billion. You wouldn’t quarrel with that?

JD: I probably would actually. I mean, I don’t know. It’s very, very difficult to quantify. You get different changes, don’t you? And one of the things that’s happening in Europe now is that many governments - such as the UK government and the German government - would like the targets to be tougher because they see it as a real stimulus to the economy.

AB: Right. Well you don’t know but you think it isn’t $250 billion.

JD: I think you could get lots of different academics coming up with lots of different figures.

AB: That’s right. You don’t know but that’s the figure that I’ve got in front of me. For that investment. Or for whatever the investment is. What’s your estimation of how much - because the object ultimately of course is to lower the world’s temperatures - what sort of temperature reduction do you imagine from that kind of investment?

JD: Well, what we do know is that to have an evens chance of keeping temperature increases globally to 2°C - so that’s increases - you’ve got to reduce emissions globally by 50% by 2050.

AB: Yes, I accept that, but from the $250 billion - or whatever you think the figure is - what do you think Europe can achieve with this 20% reduction in terms of cutting the world’s temperature? Because that’s, in fact, what’s necessary. What do you think the temperature reduction will be?

JD: Well, obviously, Europe accounts for 14% of global emissions. It’s 500 or 550 million people. On its own it cannot do that. That is absolutely clear.

AB: Have you got a figure in your mind? You don’t know the cost. Do you know the result?

JD: I don’t have a cost figure in my mind. Nor, one thing I do know, obviously, is that Europe acting alone will not solve this problem alone.

AB: So if I put a figure to you - I find it odd that you don’t know the cost and you don’t know the outcome - would you quarrel with this assessment: that by 2100 - if you go your way and if you’re successful - the world’s temperatures will fall by 0.05°C? Would you agree with that?

JD: Sorry, can you just pass that by me again? You’re saying that if Europe acts alone?

AB: If just Europe alone - for this massive investment - will lower the world’s temperature with this 20% target (if it sustains that until the end of this century) by 0.05°C. Would you quarrel with that?

JD: Well, I think the climate science would not be that precise. Would it?

AB: Ah, no, actually it is, Jill. You see this is what I’m curious about; that you’re in charge of a massive program to re-jig an economy. You don’t know what it costs. And you don’t know what it’ll achieve.

JD: Well, I think you can look at lots of modelling which will come up with lots of different costs.

AB: Well what’s your modelling? That’s the one that everyone’s quoting. What’s your modelling?

JD: Well, ah, ah. Let me talk about what we have done in Europe and what we have seen as the benefits. In Europe, in Germany you could look at, there’s over a million new jobs that have been created by tackling climate change, by putting in place climate policies. In the UK there’s many hundreds of thousand of jobs.


Read on for the full transcript,

Comments

I've commented before about how anyone making an investment proposal this vague out in the private sector would be handed their P45 toot sweet. But Jillie exhibits even more than just basic economic illiteracy. Take this comment for instance:

No, I can’t tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it’s cheaper to start earlier rather than later, so it’s cheaper to do it now rather than put off action.

What modelling?

After all, the concept of the time value of money shows that its frequently better to defer costs if at all possible. So what modelling informs you that this is not the case in this instance? Come on! I tink we have a right to know. It is our money after all.

Remittance Man said "What modelling?"

The modelling that begins with the assumption that it must be done - that would be either the economic models the IPCC climate models are based on *or* the work Lord Stern did. If you assume that higher CO2 = more 'risk', even if you can't conclusively say what that risk will look like, then their logic is sound. Backward but sound.

What Governments are doing is trying to leap forward to the point where deferring changes becomes cost effective. Rather than wait for fossil fuel prices to rise due to short supply or higher demand carbon taxes and carbon emissions credits are a means to artificially bump fossil fuels prices to a higher level.

The notable omission from Ms Duggan's thinking is to not do it, both because the cost is too high (development will creak to a halt) and the science is not proven (the AGW crowd haven't passed the hypothesis stage).

I think she sold used cars before she got her current job. Somehow I think her job is one of those million new jobs created.

Now! Now! Now! You simply must admit that she told the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. I don't see why anyone would possibly object to this person being in such a high level position. She wants to spend many, many, many billions to achieve "X". She can't define what "X" is or what the effect on global climate will be. NOW!!! The question is for the people of Europe to decide; are they going to spend all that money on some "X" in a torn, dirty, old burlap bag being held up for all to smell, or NOT? To me the answer is "Not on your sweet little life!" But, in this day and age, with the well educated people of Europe making the decision, I'm just a might worried. Life really is stranger than fiction.

God - the loony left aren't in power yet they are stealing all our money!!!
Notice it isn't global warming any more - it has a new name because it might actually get colder...?!?
Climate change???? Ah, DUH! Doesn't it change all the time?
This dozy burk is/has been in NZ promoting her bollocks - oh yeah, just had an earthquake that will cost $15 billion, lets take even more of our taxpayers money away! I be that was because of climate change as well.....

God - the loony left aren't in power yet they are stealing all our money!!!
Notice it isn't global warming any more - it has a new name because it might actually get colder...?!?
Climate change???? Ah, DUH! Doesn't it change all the time?
This dozy burk is/has been in NZ promoting her bollocks - oh yeah, just had an earthquake that will cost $15 billion, lets take even more of our taxpayers money away! I be that was because of climate change as well.....
Oh, and didn't some recent eruptions throw more crap into the atmosphere than we can chuck up there in 20 years?

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