Climate Models Have Answered The Important Questions
....under the worst-case scenario, with a global failure to curb industrial emissions of carbon dioxide, Britain experiences an average temperature increase of between 2C and 4C by 2100, and North America has a catastrophic increase five times greater over the same period, the scientists say
But the "urban heat-island" effect caused by buildings and roads trapping heat will mean that British cities will experience a much higher frequency of hot summer nights. High night-time temperatures, rather than day-time heat, was the major factor behind the deaths of thousands of elderly Europeans during the unusually hot summer of 2003: fatal heart and breathing problems usually strike at night.
The computer model used in the assessment was developed by the US National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado,...
The model runs on a suite of supercomputers and is composed of 1.5 million lines of computer code, which is made freely available to anyone who wants to inspect it, he says. "It is our flagship model and what sets us apart is that we have made it transparent and open."
Computer models of the climate, which aim to predict what will happen under different emissions scenarios, have come under sustained attack from climate sceptics who question their accuracy. Their case is supported by frequent examples of computer models run by different organisations coming to wildly different conclusions on regional predictions, especially in relation to rainfall, which is far harder to predict than temperature.