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The Real Welfare State Problem

Welfare state in chaos as thousands live past 100 | The Times

Britain’s ageing population will live beyond 100 in unprecedented numbers, official figures reveal today, wiping out budget savings and leaving the State facing crippling health and welfare bills.
The new analysis shows that 20-year-olds today are almost twice as likely to reach their 100th birthdays as their parents. It leaves all three major parties grasping for policies at the next election to address the growing costs to the public purse.
The number of centenarians will rise dramatically over the next half-century, the Office for National Statistics predicts. In 2009, there were 11,600 but the figure will hit 80,000 by 2033, rising to 276,600 in 2050 and 510,000 in 2066, out of a projected population of 81 million.
The rapid improvement in life expectancy stems from improved medical treatment, housing and living standards, and nutrition. Only 0.6 per cent of those born in 1911 have reached 100, while babies born this year will have a 30 per cent chance of living past 2111.

Ponzi schemes crash when there are more withdrawals than new suckers putting money in.

Comments

I suspect that the actuary community has been asleep or having a laugh for a long time.

We are finding the limits of democracy, sadly. People have consistently voted (and are so ready to do so again, that any other party is hamstrung) for a party that promises jam today by indebting, i.e. effectively stealing from, the voters of tomorrow. The Labour Party is a self-serving gang of moral degenerates. It should be hated but could probably win a General Election tomorrow. We are progressing rapidly towards the poverty our stupidity and greed deserves.

Tom Paine said: "People have consistently voted ..."

How often does actuarial concerns like this become part of a political campaign? Some of what we are experiencing is due to MPs believing or being convinced by their advisers that they would be kicked out if they do what is sensible, so they don't do what is sensible nor campaign on what is sensible. I think the public (especially the tax paying public) is much more up for understanding the issue than MPs think but for decades nothing has been put to us because they thought there was no political capital to be had from it.

eg They could have been putting the pension age up one year per parliament for ages, making the case that life expectancies have improved and it would prevent the cost of pensions getting out of proportion.

Effectively the mess is the fruits of the ideological 'dream' of achieving 'full employment' through State control of commerce and industry. Pension contributions were simply added to the tax 'pot' and spent, never invested and no forward planning was ever done by the incompetents in the civil service or the politicians. Those who did forsee a problem were silenced and the companies that did create invested pensions were finally penalised by the likes of Brown (Mind you the major contributor to the Liebor Party was Maxwell - probably from the Mirror Group's pension funds!) with his tax raid on them that has left them in ruins.

None of the politicians know what to do now and all of them are very comfortably provided for at our expense, thank you very much.

Enjoy the moment. For some strange reason prognostication is a dying artform. When someone tells you that people are living longer and that society is aging, do not believe them. This is the view from the top of the mountain! There is only one way to go from here, and it ain't up. Nature has a way of dealing with little problems like too many kids or too many grannies, or too many boys in their late teens. Enjoy the moment dear friends. Mother nature is a prankster, and people aren't too kind either. Raise your hand, anyone who thinks their kids and their elected government are going to support you in your old age, raise your hand. There is a solution to every problem under heaven.

Nice article, thanks for the information.

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