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CO2 Sensitivity Decrease

BBC News - Climate sensitivity to CO2 probed

The new models predict that given a doubling in CO2 levels from pre-industrial levels, the Earth's surface temperatures will rise by 1.7 to 2.6 degrees C.

That is a much tighter range than suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s 2007 report, which suggested a rise of between 2 to 4.5 degrees C.

The new analysis also reduces the expected average surface temperatures to just over 2 degrees C, from 3.

The authors stress the results do not mean threat from human-induced climate change should be treated any less seriously, explained palaeoclimatologist Antoni Rosell-Mele from the Autonomous University of Barcelona, who is a member of the team that came up with the new estimates.

But it does mean that to induce large-scale warming of the planet, leading lead to widespread catastrophic consequences, we would have to increase CO2 more than we are going to do in the near future, he said.


"We are unable to continue the pretence that the climate is as dire as once thought; too much scrutiny for that. We still want you to panic, though."
- Climate scientist fishing for grants.

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