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Wettest Summer Forecast Fail

Summer 2012: the wettest for a century (and dullest for decades) - Nature - Environment - The Independent

The washout summer ending today was the wettest in Britain for 100 years, the Met Office said yesterday.

And the forecast was.....


Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: June – August 2012 Issue date: 23.05.12

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
For UK average rainfall, the forecast for this summer is very uncertain, due to a lack of any strong driving factors. Although there is a somewhat elevated chance, relative to climatology, of the summer being wet, it looks unlikely that there will be very wet conditions. However, the probability of very dry conditions remains close to climatology.
The probability that UK average rainfall for June July August will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20%, whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 25 - 30% (the 1971 - 2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).


Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: July – September 2012 Issue date: 20.06.12

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
For UK averaged rainfall, the predicted probabilities slightly favour above normal rainfall during both July and the JulyAugustSeptember
period, although the spread of possible outcomes is large. Consequently, confidence in this prediction is not high, and there is still a significant
probability of below normal rainfall.
Recent wet weather, which has helped to improve groundwater resources in much of the south of the country, is likely to continue into the first
part of July. Indeed the forecast for July includes a significant probability of the monthly accumulation being above normal.
The probability that UK precipitation for JulyAugustSeptember will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 20% whilst the
probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is also around 20% (the 19712000 climatological probability for each of these
categories is 20%).


See also

May June July Forecast

and

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April May June period.
The probability that UK precipitation for April May June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20 - 25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10 - 15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Comments

It didn't snow, yet, Huzzah!

And the Outlook for September-November is just as vague.

So if you're diplomatic enough about it, you can publicly admit you haven't a clue and continue to draw a nice government salary.

Nice work if you can get it.

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